Game, Set, Time: Does Duration Decide Champions?
By Melbourne 2024, Danii Medvedev had logged 1,049 minutes—then led Sinner 2–0 before history flipped. Was it fatigue…or the relative time on court? Across 30+ years of Slam finals, total court time predicts winners a little; relative court time predicts them better. Every +100 minutes vs your opponent slashes win odds by ~25%, and the total-time effect vanishes once the relative time on court is included. So when the fifth set arrives, who really holds the edge?
